The Global Stakes of the U.S. Election: Debt, The Dollar, and Military Power




Reality Roundtable 12
October 27th, 2024

(Conversation recorded on October 16th, 2024)  

Show Summary

Ahead of the U.S. Presidential Election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, both of whom have distinct monetary and fiscal policies, there is much debate on the potential systemic consequences for the global economy. What is the current status of the United States in the socio-political landscape, and how might trends in energy, commodities, and geopolitical tension affect the actions and capabilities of the next U.S. presidential administration? In turn, how could this affect the global economy?

In this roundtable discussion, Nate is joined by financial analysts Luke Gromen and Michael Every to explore the precarious nature of current fiscal practices, the relationship between military power and economic stability, and the potential need for radical policy shifts worldwide. They also delve into the future of the U.S. dollar as the global reserve currency and the importance of price, availability, and stability of energy resources for thinking about future economic strategies.

What are the implications of NATO's actions in Ukraine for global financial relationships, and what are the resulting strategic dilemmas for Europe? How is China potentially using gold to prepare for a fundamentally different economy with fewer resources? Most of all, how can we begin to steward our economic systems in a more sustainable direction if we don’t have a shared understanding of the values and goals that underpin everything we’re doing, regardless of who the next U.S. President may be?

About Michael Every

Michael Every is Global Strategist at Rabobank Singapore analyzing major developments and key thematic trends, especially on the intersection of geopolitics, economics, and markets. He is frequently published and quoted in financial media, is a regular conference keynote speaker, and was invited to present to the 2022 G-20 on the current global crisis. Michael has lived and worked in 9 countries and been in the industry for nearly 25 years, with previous roles at Silk Road Associates, the Royal Bank of Canada, and Dun & Bradstreet. He holds a BA from Lancaster University, and a master’s degree from University College London.

About Luke Gromen

Luke Gromen is the Founder and President of research firm Forest For The Trees, LLC, whose goal is to aggregate a wide variety of macroeconomic, thematic and sector trends in an unconventional manner to identify investable developing economic bottlenecks for clients. Luke founded FFTT to apply what clients and former colleagues consistently described as a “unique ability to connect the dots” during a time when he saw an increasing “silo-ing” of perspectives occurring on Wall Street and in corporate America. Luke has 25 years of experience in equity research, equity research sales, and as a macro/thematic analyst. He holds a BBA in Finance and Accounting from the University of Cincinnati and received his MBA from Case Western Reserve University. He earned the CFA designation in 2003.

Show Notes & Links to Learn More

PDF Transcript

00:00 - Micheal Every works + info, TGS Episode; Luke Gromen info, Forest for the Trees LLC, TGS Episode

02:30 - Helen Thompson + TGS Episode

04:05 - US Federal Spending: Entitlements + Interest; US Federal Revenue: Tax Receipts

04:42 - The US is spending more on interest payments than on defense

05:04 - US deficit to GDP over time

05:15 - US budget and economic outlook 2024-2034

06:00 - Trump vs Harris policy comparison

06:13 - Yield Curve Control 

09:50 - Supply-sided credit expansion in China

11:42 - Alexander Hamilton, Report on Manufactures 

11:55 - History of tariffs in US

14:34 - Modern Monetary Theory

15:40 - Dollar reserve status + more info

16:18 - US Treasury Securities

17:42 - Kamala Harris’ Economic Proposal + national stockpile of critical minerals

19:33 - Mercantilism

20:00 - Germany’s trade surplus in 2014

20:32 - China is world’s sole manufacturing superpower

22:58 - US imports vs exports

23:27 - Jelle Zijlstra

24:52 - The US oil deal with Saudi Arabia + more info on the rise of the US dollar hegemony

25:08 - Peak Oil, China’s oil imports over time

25:40 - US Shale Oil + more data

26:12 - Triffin’s Dilemma

30:00 - Every on Mercantilism and why Bretton Woods 3 won’t work

31:20 - Trump’s criticism of the Fed

31:41 - US use of Strategic Petroleum Reserve to get oil prices down

31:53 - The relationship between interest rates and oil prices

31:58 - ‘The Line’ city in Saudi Arabia

32:21 - BTFP

33:02 - Chinese subsidies to help favored companies

34:26 - Joseph Schumpeter, Creative Destruction, Instability of Capitalism thesis

36:38 - New Deal

37:27 - Shale oil is responsible for 90% of global production growth

37:40 - US debt

38:00 - US budget sensitivity to interest rates

38:13 - The divergence of gold from real interest rates

39:53 - Capital controls, capital controls in China

40:39 - Saudi Arabia buying gold

42:30 - The Great Game of Global Trade 

45:15 - Israel’s Iron Beam

48:03 - European debt

48:28 - Poland defense spending

48:40 - France’s nuclear capacities

48:50 - EU to sanction countries with excessive deficits

49:37 - Paper on Europe’s quest for strategic autonomy

50:27 - Mario Draghi, European Competitiveness Report

52:55 - Nord Stream pipeline sabotage

53:49 - The far right in Europe

54:50 - Nuclear phase out in Germany

55:00 - Iraq selling oil in euros 

59:16 - Europe’s sustainable food strategy

1:00:43 - Bret Weinstein

1:02:05 - Soaring housing prices across the world

1:02:14 - Falling home prices in China, Chinese people are saving in gold

1:04:09 - Hong Kong aims to become global center for gold trading

1:04:41 - Price of gold in CNY over time

1:05:29 - China buys Russian oil in yuan

1:06:08 - Renminbi usage in cross-border payments

1:07:53 - Eurodollar

1:09:21 - If Iran is attacked by Israel it will attack Saudi oil

1:09:36 - BRICS and global trade

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